VP: Who Obama should pick 5.0 — Now with 50% more guessing!

Well, well, Barack Obama has some new travel buddies. Senators Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and Jack Reed (D-RI) are headed to Iraq alongside the presumptive nominee, sparking more chatter about each man’s chances for the number 2 spot. Responding to the buzz, Reed said he has no interest in running as Obama’s VP, although he did not reject the notion outright. Hagel remains a long-shot, due to his conservative social positions. But chances are one of those two would end up as Secretary of Defense in an Obama administration. Of more direct relevance, former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh campaigned with Obama Wednesday. Both men are credible Presidents with national security credentials, and both happen to be from states that might be in play this year.

In other news, Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) acknowledged that they are being vetted by the Obama team. John Edwards said he would “seriously consider” an offer to serve as VP or a cabinet post. Of course he would, because otherwise his political career is over. He likely wouldn’t get elected Senator or Governor in NC, given the widespread feeling there that he started running for President the day he entered the Senate and abandoned the state party in 2004 (resulting in the election of Burr).

With that, here’s version 5.0 of “Who Obama should pick“:

[Bold indicates changes in text from last edition; see versions 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0]

13. Hillary Clinton – Senator from New York.

12. Dick Gephardt – former Congressman from Missouri and Minority Leader. High name recognition (not necessarily all good) with strong ties to labor. He’s well-respected in places Obama could use help — Missouri and the coal & steel producing regions. As a former minority leader and two-time presidential candidate, he brings a world of experience. Unfortunately, his identity as a Washington insider is wholly counter the “change” mantle. And maybe worse, Gephardt was one of the movers who pushed the compromise bill that allowed Bush to start the war in Iraq without going back to Congress for a second authorization (as opposed to Biden’s bill at the time).

11. Jack Reed [Moving Up] – Senator from Rhode Island. He’s an unknown from the bluest state (and one of the smallest) in the country, but he is a serious, pragmatic, and respected statesman with gravitas on national security. Voted against authorizing the Iraq War. He’s also an ex-Army guy; keep an eye on him for SecDef.

10. John Edwards – former Senator from NC. Returns to the list after a one-week absence. The departure of Jim Webb opens space for another southern guy, and frankly, no paring has looked as natural and comfortable on the stage yet as Obama and Edwards. I’ve never been an Edwards fan; he lacks foreign policy and wouldn’t bring NC. Yet, he is popular with many of the same folks as Gephardt and Clinton, and arguably comes with less baggage.

9 Chuck Hagel [Moving Up] – Republican Senator from Nebraska. Makes a return to the list, due to the Iraq trip. SecDef still the most likely position.

8. Tim Kaine – Governor of Virginia. Not sure he’s ready for prime-time. No foreign policy experience and only governor a few years. Has a goofy haircut. He does, however, speak fluent Spanish and is a popular leader of a new swing state.

7. Brian Schweitzer – Governor of Montana. Nearly unknown, but brings strength in the mountain west and knows his energy policy. Speaks Arabic, but has little other foreign policy experience. Will probably stay in the state house and be a player in 2012 or 2016.

6. Bill Richardson – Governor of New Mexico. His resumé is so good (Congress, Secretary of Energy, UN Ambassador, Governor, U.S. diplomat-at-large) that he has to be on the short list. Came out for Obama while Hillary was still kicking (albeit after New Mexico voted). Gives a decent speech, but can be shaky in interviews and debates. Fluent in Spanish.

5. Ed Rendell – Governor of Pennsylvania. Polls make it look like Obama will probably carry Pennsylvania anyway.

4. Sam Nunn – former Georgia Senator. Major gravitas on national security and nuclear proliferation. Drawbacks: barely younger than McCain (although he looks much younger), and would have to mend fences with the homosexual community after leading the charge against Clinton’s attempt to allow gays to serve openly in the military in the 1990s.

3. Kathleen Sebelius – Governor of Kansas. Webb’s departure leaves her as the most viable choice who is not entrenched in the Washington Democratic establishment. Or at least the one that will bring the most media attention.

2. Joe Biden – Senator from Delaware. I admit it, I love this guy. His strength is foreign policy. He’d give a huge boost of gravitas to the ticket. He’s affable and a great attack dog. Would probably thrash anyone the GOP put up against him in a VP debate. But he’s been in Washington since his 30th birthday and in no way represents change. And he talks so much that he is prone to gaffs.

1. Evan Bayh – Senator and former Governor of Indiana. Mr. Safe Pick. Hard to beat if you go just by the numbers. There are two choices left from swing states that would bring foreign policy heft to the ticket — Richardson and Bayh. Both also bring gubernatorial experience. Bayh doesn’t excite anybody, but Richardson has shown himself to be an uneven campaigner nationally. Bayh is uninspired and did vote to authorize action in Iraq, but his readiness to be President is unquestioned.

So much for my suggestions. Now, based on no actual information whatsoever and only on reading blogs and other infallible sources, here is:

MY GUESS AS TO THE ACTUAL LIST

10. Hillary Clinton
9. Chuck Hagel
8. John Edwards
7. Sam Nunn
6. Bill Richardson
5. Chris Dodd
4. Evan Bayh
3. Joe Biden
2. Kathleen Sebelius
1. Tim Kaine

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Took themselves out of the running: Ted Strickland (Governor, Ohio), Mark Warner (former Governor, Virginia), Jim Webb (Senator, Virginia)

Just Not going to happen: Mike Bloomberg, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, Al Gore

Other possiblities (discussed at greater length in versions 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0)

• Phil Bredesen – Governor of Tennessee.
• Wesley Clark [OUT] – retired four-star General and NATO Commander. Chances of VP pretty much dead now.
• William Cohen – former (Republican) Senator from Maine and Secretary of Defense under Clinton.
• Tom Daschle – former Senator from South Dakota.
• Chris Dodd – Senator from Connecticut.
• Mike Easley – Governor of North Carolina.
• Chet Edwards – Congressman from Waco, TX.
• Bob Kerrey – former Senator and Governor from Nebraska. Might look too much like Jonathan Pryce to be Vice President.
• Claire McCaskill – Senator from Missouri.
• Janet Napolitano – Governor of Arizona.
• Gen. Anthony Zinni – marine former commander of CENTCOM.