VP: Who McCain might pick 5.0 — endgame near?

** UPDATE: Jindal says he won’t be the VP nominee **

Is it crunch time, or just a decoy? Conservative columnist Robert Novak (no relation to Kim) declared that McCain will announce his VP choice this week, possibly as a move to dampen all the (thus far positive) pub Barack Obama is receiving for his Middle East trip. On top of the imagery of Obama discussing the war earnestly with General Petraeus, events in Iraq and Afghanistan are playing right into Obama’s narrative: the Iraqi Prime Minister called for a time-line of withdrawal and the war in Afghanistan requires more troops. What’s more, McCain hasn’t made a dent in Obama’s small, but solid lead in national polling. And in state-by-state polls, Obama has a significant lead in the electoral college.

So will McCain announce soon? If he does, it seems that would point to a surprise or electrifying candidate like Bobby Jindal or Sarah Palin. Why announce early if he is going with an uninspiring choice, particularly if it’s one people know a lot about (like Mitt Romney)? More likely, the McCain camp leaked the possibility of an announcement to Novak to steal a wee bit of thunder from Obama. It would be foolish to announce so early; because the Republican convention is after the Democratic one, McCain has the luxury of waiting to see whom Obama picks before making his final choice.

The front has been quiet the past week. The Wall Street Journal reported that Tim Pawlenty had not been asked for papers by McCain campaign. McCain met with Rudy Giuiliani (who appears to be preparing to run for governor of NY in 2010) Sunday and is set to meet with Jindal on Wednesday. A friend of mine who supports McCain has a “hunch” that Jindal will be the pick. I can’t vouch for his hunches, but he’s wicked smart (despite inexplicably supporting McCain), so I give it some credence.

With that, here is the 5th (and possibly final?) version of “Who McCain Might Pick“:

[Bold indicates a change to the text since the last version]

[Note --> Any VP candidate that McCain chooses without foreign policy experience undercuts his argument against Obama. How can McCain ask the voters to use foreign policy experience as the key metric to choose him over Obama if he selects as the President-in-waiting someone with less foreign policy experience than Obama? It's the same "you can't have it both ways" argument Obama used to effect against Hillary and Bill when they suggested that Obama didn't have the experience to be Prez but would make a great VP for her. This is a problem for McCain, because none of the young people and/or governors on his list has foreign policy experience, and he may not be able to choose another Senator in an election where anti-Washington sentiment is so high. ]

The “Ain’t Gonna Happens”:

• Carla Fiorini – former CEO of Hewlett Packard. Not sure why commentators insist on including her on the VP lists. When she was named the CEO of HP, numerous stories were written about breaking the “glass ceiling.” But HP forced her out tumultuously, and has no political experience. She is currently hawking McCain’s economic message to the masses.
• Christine Todd Whitman – former Governor of New Jersey. If McCain were serious about choosing a woman, she is hands-down the best candidate, and on some criteria would be a top choice, regardless of gender. Whitman is one of the last of a dying breed: the moderate, Northeastern Republicans. She has a wonderful resumé, with real gravitas on energy and environmental policy. But she grew disenchanted with the Bush administration and the direction of the GOP and wrote a book called “It’s My Party, Too” (also the name of her PAC). This is exactly why she’d be the perfect running mate to attract independents in the general, and why she won’t be nominated at the convention.

13. Sam Brownback – Senator from Kansas. Staunch religious conservative, genial and generally inoffensive. Along with Huckabee, raised his hand when asked at the debate who does not believe in evolution. Would be the white bread to McCain’s aged rye. I’m trying to say that he’s pretty dull and would bring almost nothing to the ticket, other than pleasing religious conservatives. If McCain chooses him, the Obamas should start picking out drapes for the White House.

12. Joe Lieberman - Senator from Connecticut. Former Democrat, now “Independent-Democrat” who chairs a committee for the Dems. Staunch supporter of McCain, but is liberal on most social issues. Only reason he’s on this list (and not in the “ain’t gonna happen” category) is that McCain clearly likes him and he has been at McCain’s side during so much of this election. The Dem leadership will likely oust him from his chairmanship of the Homeland Security committee if he speaks at the Republican convention. Imagine what they’ll do to him if he runs with McCain.

11. Lindsay Graham – Senator from South Carolina. Close political ally of McCain. Conservative pragmatist and respected legislator. Judge in the J.A.G. reserves and leading voice in the debates over Guantanamo Bay and habeas corpus (his stance: no habeas, but don’t torture). A bachelor. Seems cut-out to be an influential senator for decades, and less like a President-in-waiting.

10. Mike Huckabee – former Governor of Arkansas. Affable and a strong campaigner (if weak fundraiser). Excels in debates. He and McCain are comfortable with one another. Shores up and energizes the religious right. Disadvantages: no foreign policy exp. The former minister and radio-show-host has also said some things that give serious pause to a majority of Americans. Namely, he does not believe in evolution and said it’s easier to amend the Constitution than to amend God’s laws.

9. Rob Portman [Moving Up] – former director of the Office of Management and Budget and former Congressman from Ohio. He’s young (52), has strong economic chops, and is from a swing state. McCain needs help on the economy, and having a savvy, young VP candidate would help tremendously. Disadvantages: an unknown with no foreign policy experience.

8. Mark Sanford [Moving Down] – Governor of South Carolina. Unoffensive, main-stream conservative who is popular with economic conservatives. Famously brought two pigs to the state house to deride his legislature for so much pork. There aren’t a lot of negatives, although SC should be safe for the GOP anyway. Sanford is a safe pick that probably would offend no one. However, no foreign policy. Rumor is that McCain was offended, because Sanford did not endorse McCain again in 2008 as he had in 2000. Sanford was not invited to the BBQ at McCain’s along with Pawlenty, Jindal, and Crist. –> Bone up before you go to pitch for McCain next time, Sanford.

7. Tim Pawlenty [Moving Down] – Governor of Minnesota. Holds office in a state the GOP would very much like to win. Has traveled overseas to visit MN National Guard units. Co-chaired McCain’s Presidential exploratory committee and has been auditioning for VP for a year. Unoffensive candidate who is palatable to all parts of the GOP coalition and won’t scare independents. Disadvantages: Little-to-no foreign policy exp. Barely won re-election in 2006 by a much narrower margin than his initial election and may not be able to deliver MN against Obama. Is McCain really not vetting him?

6. Sarah Palin – Governor of Alaska. Again, identity politics. You want a woman with executive experience? Here she is! Has worked a good deal with energy policy. Disadvantages: she’s very young (44), has been governor for only 2 years and has zero foreign policy experience.

5. Tom Ridge [Moving up] – former governor of Pennsylvania and the first Director of Homeland Security. WOW! Perfect guy, right? No. He’s pro-choice. That’s not going to play with McCain already struggling with the conservative base. However, he has gone out of his way recently to mollify conservative criticism of his pro-choice position. For the first time, I consider him a serious contender.

4. Bobby Jindal [Moving up] – Governor of Louisiana. Extremely young (36), but a fast-rising star in the GOP. Has already been a Congressman, Assistant Secretary for Health and Human Services under Bush II, president of the Louisiana University system, and director of Louisiana health and hospitals. Purports to be very conservative on social issues. Disadvantages: He’s barely old enough to serve constitutionally as the VP. No foreign policy exp. Has been in the governor’s mansion only since January. Would handicap McCain’s experience argument. On the flip side, McCain could say, “yes, he’s 11 years younger than Obama, but he’s done more!” Also makes McCain look really, really old in contrast.

3. Charlie Crist – Governor of Florida. Popular Governor who would lock down key state for McCain. Crist is probably the reason McCain is the nominee; Romney was surging in Florida until Crist started stumping for McCain, and the Florida primary win saved the campaign. It’s a shame to see an engagement in a political light, but given the timing of this, one almost has to. On the one hand, the engagement obviously helps Crist, since we haven’t had a bachelor VP since the 19th Century (I think, don’t quote me). But the timing is so suspicious that I wonder if this hurts Crist by creating a news cycle reviving the rumors. The net, though, is probably a boost to Crist’s chances.

2. John Thune – Senator from South Dakota. Young (47) and looks like a Ken Doll. Tabbed as the future of the party by some. A hero to the GOP for defeating Tom Daschle in 2004. Disadvantages: arrived in the Senate same year as Obama, so the choice of Thune would make it harder for McCain to use the inexperience line against Obama. SD is securely red, anyway. Thune is, in essence, a better Dan Quayle: younger, handsome mid-western Senator without name recognition. Mr. Safe continues to move up, based solely on everyone else moving down.

1. Mitt Romney – former Governor of Massachusetts. Strong economic and executive experience. Saved the Olympics in Salt Lake City. Has played loyal attack dog for McCain since dropping out of the primaries gracefully before he really needed to. The right seemed to have gotten “buyer’s remorse” after Romney dropped out, and his reputation surprisingly soared in his own absence. May help in Michigan. Disadvantages: no foreign policy exp. Also, he just seems like a cypher and a goober. Who likes this guy? He seems to have no core beliefs. Has changed his position radically on a number of seemingly core issues. Yet there have been several stories of late touting Romney as the “insider’s choice,” because he has been vetted by the national media and can raise tons of cash. Would be an uninspired and not particularly like-able choice.