I am off on vacation for a couple of weeks in Canada, so forgive me if I miss Obama’s or McCain’s announcement of a running mate. I know all three of you will be disappointed not to have my snarky take. And Ted will be apoplectic if nothing comes up on his “Sarah Palin + John McCain” google search.

Keep the faith. Final guess is still Obama/Kaine vs. McCain/Romney, but here’s hoping for Biden and .. Romney.

Now your two favorite posts rolled into one!

It’s the 11th hour (ok, maybe 10th) for the VP searches, and a couple of names are floating in from left field … i.e., from the House of Representatives. For weeks, Nancy Pelosi has been pushing Congressman Chet Edwards, who represents the Crawford, TX area. He has served for 18 years, his district is heavily Army, and he has a strong reputation on veteran’s issues. On the GOP side, it appears that the McCain team is vetting Rep. Eric Cantor of Richmond, Virginia. Both men are quite handsome. Other than that, it’s unclear why they should be taken seriously.

Of the two, only Cantor has an outside chance of being chosen. He’s the same age as Obama, could shore up Virginia for McCain, and is Jewish, which might help in Florida. But he doesn’t pass the Commander-in-Chief-in-Waiting test, and would risk exacerbating concerns about McCain’s age.

In other McCain news, Sarah Palin may want to invest in Alaska real-estate, because she’s not moving to DC anytime soon. Last week, she praised Obama’s energy policy as the rest of McCain’s surrogates were busy attacking it.

As for Obama, he spent a couple of days traveling around Indiana with Evan Bayh. While they praised each other to high heaven, Obama assiduously avoided dropping any VP hints.

With that, here’s versions 7.0 of Obama’s and McCain’s Veepstakes:

Obama: who he should pick

(here’s a link to the last version)

This week’s trip Bayh was interesting to watch. While Bayh is great on paper and stays on message, he’s not a good attack dog, and that might be what Obama needs more than anything else. Joe Biden would be an ace in that role. Hillary Clinton would also fit the bill, although she’s not as good as Biden at using humor to make a point, and as we learned in the primaries, she can turn people off when her attitude goes negative. I’m still not a Tim Kaine fan, and he’s not as credible on the attack as Biden or Clinton would be.

Also of note, with polls this close, Hillary has moved up my list. All the same negatives still apply, but arguably no pick would be a greater boost to Obama’s chances at this point. I still think he wins with Biden or Bayh, but I would certainly put the choice of Hillary ahead of Kaine and some of the others.

So considering Obama’s generally accepted short-list, here’s my list of who Obama should pick:

9. Chris Dodd
8. Kathleen Sebelius
7. Tim Kaine
6. Sam Nunn
5. Hillary Clinton [Moving Up]
4. Jack Reed
3. Chuck Hagel
2. Evan Bayh
1. Joe Biden [Moving Up]

McCain: who he might pick

(here’s a link to the last version)

Newt Gingrich and David Brooks both tout Rob Portman, the former director of the Office of Management and Budget and former Congressman from Ohio, as the best VP pick for McCain. Of all the possibilities with strong conservative credentials, he is as good as any to help steer the GOP towards a winning path. The problem is, of course, that he was an economic guy in the Bush administration. Does McCain want to explicitly tie himself to the Bush administration’s economic record?

The safest money, again, is on Mitt Romney. I’d still take the field vs. Romney, but right now he is the most effective attack dog McCain has. He stays on message, chomps into the meaty part of talking points and holds on, no matter how much logic is thrown at him.

11. Joe Lieberman
10. Sarah Palin [Moving Down]
9. Bobby Jindal [Moving Down]
8. Mark Sanford
7. Lindsay Graham [Moving Up]
6. Charlie Crist
5. John Thune
4. Rob Portman [Moving Up]
3. Tom Ridge
2. Tim Pawlenty
1. Mitt Romney

Will either McCain or Obama announce his running mate this week?

** UPDATE:  Obama is taking vacation the week I suggested that he’ll announce his VP.  So, uh … maybe look for McCain to announce Aug. 11-15 **

It looks like the candidates are playing a game of VP chicken: neither one wants to announce too early, but the Olympics are lording over August, certain to suck up press coverage and dampen the announcement’s positive (or negative) impact. Given how political the games in Beijing already are and the strong possibility of some sort of large-scale civil unrest, international incident, or terrorist attack (a bombing today in western China killed 16 people), world events could literally take center stage.

So it’s either now or … next week.

The calendar is getting tricky. The Olympics start this Friday, August 8 and run until Sunday, August 24 … which is the day before the start of the Democratic National Convention. Obama and his running mate will accept the nominations on Thursday, August 28, and the Republican National Convention begins four days later, on Monday, September 1st. Yet neither Obama nor McCain has tipped his hat.

Will either presumptive nominee announce in the next three days? It’s almost too late, now. Wednesday morning is the absolute latest a candidate could announce his pick and still get in two sets of evening news and two days of morning shows before the Olympics.

If, say, Obama were to announce Tuesday afternoon, McCain wouldn’t be able to get in the door before the opening ceremonies, and Obama and his running mate would have the Sunday talk shows all to themselves. But that would afford McCain the luxury of almost a month to see how Obama’s choice is sitting with voters and to tailor his own roll-out accordingly. McCain could, of course, wait to announce until the day after the Democratic convention, as a ploy to steal Obama’s thunder. But that’s Labor Day weekend, when no one will be paying attention. Plus, if Obama announces soon, I doubt McCain would let the Obama/? ticket get a three week head-start. If McCain thinks he has trouble getting press coverage now …

So if not this week, when? The opening ceremonies will monopolize press coverage for a couple of days, but after that, the events that will capture the most attention in the United States are the finals of gymnastics, track & field, swimming (if Phelps is still in), and Basketball. All of those happen during the last week of the Olympics, in the days leading up to the Democratic Convention.

That leaves a narrow window in which either candidate could introduce his running mate after the opening ceremonies, but before America tunes-in to watch athletes draped in precious metals lip-synch the National Anthem from the medal stand. If either Obama or McCain announces early next week, the other could jump on the coverage with his own roll-out. Regardless, any announcement would have to come no later than Friday morning, early enough to catch the evening news and dominate the weekend political echo chamber.

So look for both men to make their announcements between Monday, August 11 and Friday, August 15th. Who will blink first?

Tim Kaine and Mitt Romney. Obama/Kaine vs. McCain/Romney. If the Washington Post, talking heads and bloggers (like me!) are to be believed, these are the two most likely tickets. But really? Really? As all three of you who have been following my weekly posts on the respective VP hunts know, I have tried to be somewhat objective (and I mean that loosely). Yet it needs be said:

Senators Obama and McCain, please don’t pick these two guys.

The choice of a running mate is the most important decision a presidential candidate makes before election day. And selecting either of these guys would send the wrong signals. Each candidate might have reasons for considering their guy, but in the end, both would hurt more than help.

Obama/Kaine – Tim Kaine is likable, speaks Spanish, is devoutly Catholic, and is the popular governor of an important swing state. Yet his resume is thinner than Senator Obama’s; Kaine has been governor only since 2005, before that he was mayor of Richmond, and has no solid executive accomplishments to point to. Selecting him would do nothing to allay people’s fears about Obama’s lack of foreign policy experience. Moreover, unlike Obama, Kaine doesn’t have the kind of presence that inspires confidence. Although that shouldn’t necessarily be an aspect of running for the presidency, it undoubtedly is (see “Richardson, Bill”). Can you imagine being a heartbeat away from President Kaine? (most people can’t, since they haven’t seen him speak, but that’s another issue … )

In short, what Kaine brings to the table — more youth, more outsider, across-the-aisle bona fides and possibly Virginia — does not nearly make up for his shortcomings. I wouldn’t quibble with Obama’s choice of a governor without foreign policy experience, so long as that person had a strong executive record and the appearance of a steady hand. Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania would work. Phil Bredesen might. Kaine’s predecessor, Mark Warner, would be great. But not Tim Kaine. He’s not ready for prime-time.

McCain/Romney – As an Obama supporter, I have written every week how happy I would be if McCain picks Romney, because he would be a drag on the ticket. The problem is that McCain might win, and given his age, we should seriously consider whether whomever he chooses would make a good President. And the idea of President Romney gives me the heeby-jeebies.

But the real reason that Senator McCain shouldn’t choose Mitt Romney is that Romney wouldn’t help McCain win in November. The dramatic shifts and 180s in Romney’s beliefs and policy positions — these are no mere “flip-flops” — give one serious pause. In what had become almost an open field, Romney failed to connect with GOP primary voters. And while the old governor Romney might have appealed to independents, the new conservative Romney created for the primaries would almost certainly turn off more people than he would bring.

The argument for Romney is that he has experience on the economy at a time it is sorely needed. That may be true, but the enterprise he ran, Bain Capital, took over failing companies and fired huge swaths of American workers. This, on top of Phil Gramm’s comment that Americans are whining about a “mental recession,” wouldn’t send the message McCain wants to get across.

So, Senators Obama and McCain, please select running mates who could safely run the American government, should you no longer be able to fulfill your duties. Pick someone smart and capable, but someone who won’t hurt you in November.

Give us Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Ridge and let’s roll.

The Washington Post has a solid article today about Obama’s VP hunt. According to the piece, “sources with knowledge of the process” say that Tim Kaine, Evan Bayh, and Joe Biden are the three people being most seriously considered for the #2 spot. The campaign is also vetting Chris Dodd, Sam Nunn, and Hillary Clinton. If the chatter is to be believed, I would also have to include on Obama’s list of possibilities Kathleen Sebelius, Chuck Hagel, and Jack Reed.

Good money is that those nine make up the “short list.” It is easy to see that the list breaks down into two categories, the outsiders (Kaine and Sebelius), and the experienced hands (everybody else). Whom Obama picks will largely be decided by whether he wants to choose someone to shore up his inexperience in foreign policy (and reassure the electorate) or to double-down on his message of change. Unfortunately, the person who best straddled the two camps, Jim Webb, took himself out of the running.

So I have done something different this week. I ranked the candidates on the short list according to twelve criteria that Obama’s team should take into consideration: foreign policy/national security bona fides, executive experience, Wall Street cred, change message, geography, gravitas, blue collar appeal, ability to excite the base, appeal to independents, risk/reward, comfort factor in having person a heartbeat away from the Presidency, and whether the person could be a viable party standard bearer in eight years.

The chatter is building that both Obama and McCain will announce their running mates in the first couple of weeks of August. With that, here’s version 6.0 of “Who Obama should pick“:

Foreign Policy/ National Security

• Plus: Joe Biden, Chuck Hagel, Sam Nunn, Jack Reed, Chris Dodd, Evan Bayh, Hillary Clinton
• Minus: Tim Kaine, Kathleen Sebelius

Executive Experience

• Plus: Bayh (2 term governor), Sebelius (2 term governor), Kaine (1 term governor)
• Minus: Biden, Dodd (career senators)
• Even: Clinton (former First Lady, poorly run campaign)

Wall Street cred

• Plus: Dodd, Clinton, Nunn, Hagel
• Even: everybody else

Change

• Plus: Sebelius, Kaine
• Minus: Clinton, Biden, Dodd
• Even: Hagel

Geography

• Plus: Kaine, Bayh, Nunn
• Minus: Dodd, Reed, Biden

“Gravitas”

• Plus: Biden, Hagel, Nunn, Clinton
• Minus: Kaine, Sebelius

Blue Collar Appeal

• Plus: Clinton, Biden, Kaine
• Minus: Dodd
• Even: Reed, Bayh

Excites the base

• Plus: Clinton
• Minus: Hagel
• Even: everybody else

Appeals to Independents

• Plus: Hagel, Bayh, Nunn, Biden, Kaine, Sebelius
• Minus: Clinton

Risk/Reward

• Riskiest: Clinton, Sebelius, Kaine, Hagel
• Safest: Bayh

Heartbeat Away?

• Comfortable: Biden, Clinton, Nunn, Reed, Bayh, Dodd, Hagel
• Uncomfortable: Kaine
• Even: Sebelius

Can Run in 2016? (age now)

• Plus: Bayh (age 52), Kaine (50), Reed (58 )
• Minus: Hagel (Republican, age 61), Nunn (69), Biden (65), Dodd (64),
• Even: Clinton (60), Sebelius (60)

Where does all that leave us? Bayh looks to be the safest candidate. He has sufficient foreign policy and executive experience to be a credible President, is popular in a (possible) swing state, is known for working across the aisle, and is the perfect age to succeed Obama in 2016 (Bayh would be 60). Both of the “outsider” candidates, Kaine and Sebelius, give me pause, because neither has foreign policy experience. Sebelius has slightly more executive experience than Kaine, but she can’t bring Kansas. Kaine, on the other hand, might swing Virginia’s crucial 13 electoral votes, and he speaks fluent Spanish to boot. Given that the choice of a woman other than Hillary Clinton could be an issue for some of her backers, the slight nod has to go to Kaine.

I think Obama should pick Evan Bayh, although I really like Biden. Reed would be a surprise, but solid, pick, and Hagel would certainly shake up the race. No one would have more credentials in attacking McCain’s position over the Iraq War and Afghanistan.

Barack Obama has made clear in several interviews and by the secrecy of the process that the choice of a running mate is his and his alone. He is going to pick the person he feels most comfortable running with and handing the country over to. Given that, Tim Kaine — Obama’s national campaign co-chair, friend, and partner-in-change — is the odds-on choice at this point.

(But don’t totally count out Bill Richardson … )

————————————————————————————

see versions 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0, 5.0

Took themselves out of the running: Ted Strickland (Governor, Ohio), Mark Warner (former Governor, Virginia), Jim Webb (Senator, Virginia)

Just Not going to happen: Mike Bloomberg, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, Al Gore

• Phil Bredesen – Governor of Tennessee.
• Wesley Clark – retired four-star General and NATO Commander. Chances of VP pretty much dead now.
• William Cohen – former (Republican) Senator from Maine and Secretary of Defense under Clinton.
• Tom Daschle – former Senator from South Dakota.
• Mike Easley – Governor of North Carolina.
• Chet Edwards – Congressman from Waco, TX.
• John Edwards – former Senator from North Carolina.
• Bob Kerrey – former Senator and Governor from Nebraska. Might look too much like Jonathan Pryce to be Vice President.
• Claire McCaskill – Senator from Missouri.
• Janet Napolitano – Governor of Arizona.
• Bill Richardson – Governor of New Mexico
• Gen. Anthony Zinni – marine former commander of CENTCOM.

The aforementioned McCain-supporting friend rightfully pointed out that, too be fair, I should cover Obama’s gaffes. Obama did declare his intention to visit “all 57 states.”

At first this would appear as if Obama needs a map of the U.S. like McCain needs a map of the world. However, I have it on good authority that Senator Obama was merely being realistic in his assessment of U.S. territory, and was referring to the 50 “official” states plus

1. Washington, DC
2. Puerto Rico
3. U.S. Virgin Islands
4. Guam
5. American Samoa
6. Northern Marianas Islands
7. Guantanamo Bay

Remember, kids, imperialism means shorter lines through customs.

** UPDATE: Obama actually infers that he has visited “57″ states and has one to go, excluding Alaska and Hawaii. He obviously meant that he has been to the 48 contiguous states, but that’s far less fun to mock. **

Well, well, Barack Obama has some new travel buddies. Senators Chuck Hagel (R-NE) and Jack Reed (D-RI) are headed to Iraq alongside the presumptive nominee, sparking more chatter about each man’s chances for the number 2 spot. Responding to the buzz, Reed said he has no interest in running as Obama’s VP, although he did not reject the notion outright. Hagel remains a long-shot, due to his conservative social positions. But chances are one of those two would end up as Secretary of Defense in an Obama administration. Of more direct relevance, former Georgia Senator Sam Nunn and Indiana Senator Evan Bayh campaigned with Obama Wednesday. Both men are credible Presidents with national security credentials, and both happen to be from states that might be in play this year.

In other news, Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Governor Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS) acknowledged that they are being vetted by the Obama team. John Edwards said he would “seriously consider” an offer to serve as VP or a cabinet post. Of course he would, because otherwise his political career is over. He likely wouldn’t get elected Senator or Governor in NC, given the widespread feeling there that he started running for President the day he entered the Senate and abandoned the state party in 2004 (resulting in the election of Burr).

With that, here’s version 5.0 of “Who Obama should pick“:

[Bold indicates changes in text from last edition; see versions 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0]

13. Hillary Clinton – Senator from New York.

12. Dick Gephardt – former Congressman from Missouri and Minority Leader. High name recognition (not necessarily all good) with strong ties to labor. He’s well-respected in places Obama could use help — Missouri and the coal & steel producing regions. As a former minority leader and two-time presidential candidate, he brings a world of experience. Unfortunately, his identity as a Washington insider is wholly counter the “change” mantle. And maybe worse, Gephardt was one of the movers who pushed the compromise bill that allowed Bush to start the war in Iraq without going back to Congress for a second authorization (as opposed to Biden’s bill at the time).

11. Jack Reed [Moving Up] – Senator from Rhode Island. He’s an unknown from the bluest state (and one of the smallest) in the country, but he is a serious, pragmatic, and respected statesman with gravitas on national security. Voted against authorizing the Iraq War. He’s also an ex-Army guy; keep an eye on him for SecDef.

10. John Edwards – former Senator from NC. Returns to the list after a one-week absence. The departure of Jim Webb opens space for another southern guy, and frankly, no paring has looked as natural and comfortable on the stage yet as Obama and Edwards. I’ve never been an Edwards fan; he lacks foreign policy and wouldn’t bring NC. Yet, he is popular with many of the same folks as Gephardt and Clinton, and arguably comes with less baggage.

9 Chuck Hagel [Moving Up] – Republican Senator from Nebraska. Makes a return to the list, due to the Iraq trip. SecDef still the most likely position.

8. Tim Kaine – Governor of Virginia. Not sure he’s ready for prime-time. No foreign policy experience and only governor a few years. Has a goofy haircut. He does, however, speak fluent Spanish and is a popular leader of a new swing state.

7. Brian Schweitzer – Governor of Montana. Nearly unknown, but brings strength in the mountain west and knows his energy policy. Speaks Arabic, but has little other foreign policy experience. Will probably stay in the state house and be a player in 2012 or 2016.

6. Bill Richardson – Governor of New Mexico. His resumé is so good (Congress, Secretary of Energy, UN Ambassador, Governor, U.S. diplomat-at-large) that he has to be on the short list. Came out for Obama while Hillary was still kicking (albeit after New Mexico voted). Gives a decent speech, but can be shaky in interviews and debates. Fluent in Spanish.

5. Ed Rendell – Governor of Pennsylvania. Polls make it look like Obama will probably carry Pennsylvania anyway.

4. Sam Nunn – former Georgia Senator. Major gravitas on national security and nuclear proliferation. Drawbacks: barely younger than McCain (although he looks much younger), and would have to mend fences with the homosexual community after leading the charge against Clinton’s attempt to allow gays to serve openly in the military in the 1990s.

3. Kathleen Sebelius – Governor of Kansas. Webb’s departure leaves her as the most viable choice who is not entrenched in the Washington Democratic establishment. Or at least the one that will bring the most media attention.

2. Joe Biden – Senator from Delaware. I admit it, I love this guy. His strength is foreign policy. He’d give a huge boost of gravitas to the ticket. He’s affable and a great attack dog. Would probably thrash anyone the GOP put up against him in a VP debate. But he’s been in Washington since his 30th birthday and in no way represents change. And he talks so much that he is prone to gaffs.

1. Evan Bayh – Senator and former Governor of Indiana. Mr. Safe Pick. Hard to beat if you go just by the numbers. There are two choices left from swing states that would bring foreign policy heft to the ticket — Richardson and Bayh. Both also bring gubernatorial experience. Bayh doesn’t excite anybody, but Richardson has shown himself to be an uneven campaigner nationally. Bayh is uninspired and did vote to authorize action in Iraq, but his readiness to be President is unquestioned.

So much for my suggestions. Now, based on no actual information whatsoever and only on reading blogs and other infallible sources, here is:

MY GUESS AS TO THE ACTUAL LIST

10. Hillary Clinton
9. Chuck Hagel
8. John Edwards
7. Sam Nunn
6. Bill Richardson
5. Chris Dodd
4. Evan Bayh
3. Joe Biden
2. Kathleen Sebelius
1. Tim Kaine

———————————————————————————————-

Took themselves out of the running: Ted Strickland (Governor, Ohio), Mark Warner (former Governor, Virginia), Jim Webb (Senator, Virginia)

Just Not going to happen: Mike Bloomberg, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, Al Gore

Other possiblities (discussed at greater length in versions 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0)

• Phil Bredesen – Governor of Tennessee.
• Wesley Clark [OUT] – retired four-star General and NATO Commander. Chances of VP pretty much dead now.
• William Cohen – former (Republican) Senator from Maine and Secretary of Defense under Clinton.
• Tom Daschle – former Senator from South Dakota.
• Chris Dodd – Senator from Connecticut.
• Mike Easley – Governor of North Carolina.
• Chet Edwards – Congressman from Waco, TX.
• Bob Kerrey – former Senator and Governor from Nebraska. Might look too much like Jonathan Pryce to be Vice President.
• Claire McCaskill – Senator from Missouri.
• Janet Napolitano – Governor of Arizona.
• Gen. Anthony Zinni – marine former commander of CENTCOM.

In an interview with the Washington Post’s Political Podcast yesterday, Governor Bill Richardson of New Mexico revealed that his favorite baseball team is the Boston Red Sox and that he wants the AL to win the All-Star game, because it’s the last one in Yankee Stadium. Note to Hillary and Rudy: when you use baseball to pander, don’t contradict yourself.

Richardson for Veep. Keep the beard.

Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT) revealed today that the Obama campaign has asked him for a significant amount of paperwork, indicating that they are vetting him for VP. There are a few good arguments for Dodd — he’s got foreign policy experience, has strong banking and commerce ties, is a solid debater, and speaks fluent Spanish. But there is one big reason not to select Chris Dodd that you may not know about: he is cursed. Because he has met me.

That’s right, meeting me = failed Presidential campaign. The evidence is strong. And here’s what’s worse: I’ve met Barack Obama, too. An Obama/Dodd ticket would be doomed.

You may not believe in curses, but let us examine the dubious history of my personal involvement in Presidential politics:

• In 1994, I interned for Chris Dodd in his DC office. While there, I met Iowa Senator Tom Harkin randomly and hung out with him and his staff for about half an hour. Granted, this was two years after Harkin flamed out after the Iowa caucuses, but I suspect that this is where the taint of Presidential failure took hold. Damn you, Tom Harkin and your down-home liberal wit.
• In 2000, I left work early to attend a Bill Bradley rally in Providence, Rhode Island. Tragically, he shook my hand and said hello. Despite a strong showing in the New Hampshire primary, Bradley’s campaign collapsed weeks later.
• In 2003, I started volunteering for John Kerry months before the first primaries. During the dark days of late autumn, when he was polling in the mid-single digits in New Hampshire and Iowa, Senator Kerry tempted fate by trading sea stories with me for a few minutes. The Kerry Komeback began almost immediately, and when he sealed up the nomination in March, 2004, naturally I felt responsible. Then came election night and a singularly depressing drive back from Ohio to DC. Kharma had paid Kerry back … in spades.
• In 2006, Republican Senator Sam Brownback was jogging by the Supreme Court and made the mistake of stopping to ask my friend and me what case we were camping out for. A mere 20 months later, his Presidential ambitions would lie in tatters.
• 2008, Dodd’s campaign fails to gain any traction despite solid fundraising and a worthy resumé.

You can take that to the bank. Now, here’s why Obama is in trouble (with or without Dodd):

• In 2005-2006, Obama and I lived in the same apartment building in Washington. If he loses the election, he can trace the cause back to running into me at the water fountain by our apartment gym.
• Dodd has met me on at least two occasions — back when I worked at his office, and once randomly at the sculpture garden in DC. Now, he might have survived these two brief encounters, except that he and his wife had a conversation with me about au pairs. Kiss of death.

Given this information, Obama would do well to also avoid Senator Jack Reed, who had the misfortune of having me serve as his guide on a tour of a military base in 2003. Other politicians Obama should cross off his list are Dick Durbin, Stephanie Herseth, Pat Leahy, Ted Kennedy, and Bob Packwood.

Oh, mourn the fallen #1! In big, big news, Jim Webb said Monday that he directly told Obama’s campaign “unequivocally” that “under no circumstances” would he be a candidate for Vice President (this after Claire McCaskill jokingly called to him “Oh, Mr. Vice President. Mr. Vice President!” on the Senate floor). This news shakes up the Veepstakes in more ways than just sliding everyone else up a notch. Somewhere, Evan Bayh and Tim Kaine are licking their chops.

In other news, at a rally in Unity, New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton put on an impressive performance as staunch supporter and ass-kicking sidekick. It’s enough to get people chattering about her VP chances again, but probably not enough to make Barack and Michelle forget about all the things she said during the long primary campaign (or forget about Bill). Word is that Obama insiders shopped around the idea of Republican Chuck Hagel as Veep, and it was not well received by Dems on the Hill. Hagel is, after all, very conservative on social issues. Several polls in Indiana show Obama with either a small lead or within striking distance there. This could certainly boost the chances of Evan Bayh, who is already a great pick on paper. In geography and speaking style, Bayh could be the Al Gore to Obama’s Bill Clinton. Wesley Clark effectively killed his chances for the #2 spot when he inartfully phrased a comment that John McCain’s military service alone did not qualify him to be President. This forced Obama off-message and made him spend more time praising his rival. Polls in Montana show Brian Schweitzer up very big on his rival for re-election as governor. The fact that he’s such a shoe-in to retain his current job just seems to make it less likely that he will be pulled away for a national campaign.

With that, here’s version 4.0 of “Who Obama should pick“:

[Bold indicates changes in text from last edition; see versions 1.0, 2.0, 3.0]

11. Hillary Clinton – Senator from New York. Too many words written already …

10. Dick Gephardt [New] – former Congressman from Missouri and Minority Leader. High name recognition (not necessarily all good) with strong ties to labor. He’s well-respected in places Obama could use help — Missouri and the coal & steel producing regions. As a former minority leader and two-time presidential candidate, he brings a world of experience. Unfortunately, his identity as a Washington insider is wholly counter the “change” mantle. And maybe worse, Gephardt was one of the movers who pushed the compromise bill that allowed Bush to start the war in Iraq without going back to Congress for a second authorization (as opposed to Biden’s bill at the time).

9. John Edwards [Moving Up] – former Senator from NC. Returns to the list after a one-week absence. The departure of Jim Webb opens space for another southern guy, and frankly, no paring has looked as natural and comfortable on the stage yet as Obama and Edwards. I’ve never been an Edwards fan; he lacks foreign policy and wouldn’t bring NC. Yet, he is popular with many of the same folks as Gephardt and Clinton, and arguably comes with less baggage.

8. Tim Kaine – Governor of Virginia. Not sure he’s ready for prime-time. No foreign policy experience and only governor a few years. Has a goofy haircut. He does, however, speak fluent Spanish and is a popular leader of a new swing state.

7. Brian Schweitzer – Governor of Montana. Nearly unknown, but brings strength in the mountain west and knows his energy policy. Speaks Arabic, but has little other foreign policy experience. Will probably stay in the state house and be a player in 2012 or 2016.

6. Bill Richardson [Moving Up] – Governor of New Mexico. His resumé is so good (Congress, Secretary of Energy, UN Ambassador, Governor, U.S. diplomat-at-large) that he has to be on the short list. Came out for Obama while Hillary was still kicking (albeit after New Mexico voted). Gives a decent speech, but can be shaky in interviews and debates. Fluent in Spanish.

5. Ed Rendell – Governor of Pennsylvania. Polls make it look like Obama will probably carry Pennsylvania anyway.

4. Sam Nunn – former Georgia Senator. I’m not sure I see it happening.

3. Kathleen Sebelius [Moving Up] – Governor of Kansas. Webb’s departure leaves her as the most viable choice who is not entrenched in the Washington Democratic establishment. Or at least the one that will bring the most media attention.

2. Joe Biden [Moving Up] – Senator from Delaware. I admit it, I love this guy. His strength is foreign policy. He’d give a huge boost of gravitas to the ticket. He’s affable and a great attack dog. Would probably thrash anyone the GOP put up against him in a VP debate. But he’s been in Washington since his 30th birthday and in no way represents change. And he talks so much that he is prone to gaffs.

1. Evan Bayh [Moving Up] – Senator and former Governor of Indiana. Mr. Safe Pick. Hard to beat if you go just by the numbers. There are two choices left from swing states that would bring foreign policy heft to the ticket — Richardson and Bayh. Both also bring gubernatorial experience. Bayh doesn’t excite anybody, but Richardson has shown himself to be an uneven campaigner nationally. Bayh is uninspired and did vote to authorize action in Iraq, but his readiness to be President is unquestioned.

———————————————————————————————-

Took themselves out of the running: Ted Strickland (Governor, Ohio), Mark Warner (former Governor, Virginia), Jim Webb (Senator, Virginia)

Just Not going to happen: Mike Bloomberg, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, Al Gore

Other possiblities (discussed at greater length in versions 1.0, 2.0, 3.0)

• Phil Bredesen – Governor of Tennessee.
• Wesley Clark [OUT] – retired four-star General and NATO Commander. Chances of VP pretty much dead now.
• William Cohen – former (Republican) Senator from Maine and Secretary of Defense under Clinton.
• Tom Daschle – former Senator from South Dakota.
• Chris Dodd – Senator from Connecticut.
• Mike Easley – Governor of North Carolina.
• Chet Edwards – Congressman from Waco, TX.
• Chuck Hagel [Moving Down] – Republican Senator from Nebraska. SecDef is a strong possibility.
• Bob Kerrey [Moving Down] - former Senator and Governor from Nebraska. Might look too much like Jonathan Pryce to be Vice President.
• Claire McCaskill – Senator from Missouri.
• Janet Napolitano – Governor of Arizona.
• Jack Reed [New] – Senator from Rhode Island. He’s an unknown from the bluest state (and one of the smallest) in the country, but he is a serious, pragmatic, and respected statesman with gravitas on national security. He’s also an ex-Army guy; keep an eye on him for SecDef. Voted against authorizing the Iraq War.
• Gen. Anthony Zinni – marine former commander of CENTCOM.