If the Election were held today (22 June)

Based on the polling averages on Real Clear Politics, if the election were held today, Barack Obama would win by a narrow but comfortable margin in the electoral college, 289-249. 270 electoral votes are required.

Notes:

• I have given a state to whomever is ahead in the polling average, regardless of how small the lead.
• Play with your own interactive map at 270 to Win.
• Nevada and New Mexico were exact ties, so I assigned one to each. Did not make a difference in the win.
• This replaces a map I had put up this morning with Missouri going to Obama. RCP hadn’t averaged the polls, and McCain is probably up there.